Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Max KeplerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4
- Peyton BattenfieldPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kepler homered to right center (440 feet), Vázquez scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -107
- MIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Peyton Battenfield: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +4 Elo | CLE 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 4–826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.