Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Andrew KniznerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nootbaar hit a ground rule double, Yepez scored, DeJong to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Torkelson doubled to left, Greene scored, Haase to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 14–3
- 7Greene doubled to right, Vierling scored and McKinstry scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Carlson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Contreras scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Arenado grounded out to shortstop, Goldschmidt scored, Contreras to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Knizner homered to left center (406 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Báez homered to left (362 feet), Ibañez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- DET +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +10 | DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +16 Elo | STL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 5–1127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.