Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alex FaedoPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting4-5, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goldschmidt homered to left (417 feet), Knizner scored.6–12
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–12
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–10
- 6Nootbaar singled to right, Edman scored and Knizner scored.6–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 6Knizner doubled to right, Carlson scored, Edman to third.6–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 6Donovan homered to right (407 feet), Gorman scored and Arenado scored.6–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Goldschmidt scored on error, Arenado safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Báez, Gorman safe at third on error.6–4
- 6Goldschmidt scored on error, Arenado safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Báez, Gorman safe at third on error.6–4
- 6Goldschmidt scored on error, Arenado safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Báez, Gorman safe at third on error.6–4
- 6Goldschmidt scored on error, Arenado safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Báez, Gorman safe at third on error.6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Rogers homered to left center (413 feet), Haase scored, Cabrera scored and McKinstry scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Cabrera singled to center, Torkelson scored, Haase to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Torkelson homered to center (418 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Fair odds
- STL -105
- DET +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −9 | DET: Alex Faedo (no track record yet) · STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +5 Elo | STL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–10 | Road vs home | 5–1328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–0 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.