Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Dylan CarlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Baddoo hit a ground rule double, Schoop scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Torkelson singled to left, Greene scored, Báez thrown out at third.5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Torkelson singled to right, Maton scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Arenado homered to left (383 feet), Nootbaar scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Greene singled to left, Short scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to second, Haase scored, Short to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Haase singled to left, Baddoo scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 2Carlson homered to right (392 feet), DeJong scored and Donovan scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -105
- DET +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | DET: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Adam Wainwright (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | DET +1 Elo | DET 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–10 | Road vs home | 5–1228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.