Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-2
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 1Bell singled to right, Straw scored, Ramírez to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Straw to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -107
- MIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +6 Elo | CLE 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 5–926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.