Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Max KeplerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kwan homered to center (402 feet).3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Correa homered to left (407 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Kepler homered to right center (393 feet), Miranda scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Straw walked, Naylor scored, Arias to second, Bell to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 40–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 10–2
- 4Bell singled to left, Ramírez scored, Naylor to second.0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Naylor reached on infield single to third, Rosario scored on error, Ramírez to second, Ramírez safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Miranda.0–1
- 4Naylor reached on infield single to third, Rosario scored on error, Ramírez to second, Ramírez safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Miranda.0–1
- 4Naylor reached on infield single to third, Rosario scored on error, Ramírez to second, Ramírez safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Miranda.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 46%
- Fair odds
- CLE -103
- MIN +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −11 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.720th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 4–927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.