Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mason EnglertPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez homered to right (347 feet), France scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7Hernández singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Suárez to second.7–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 5Rogers homered to left (402 feet), Cabrera scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Kelenic grounded into fielder's choice to first, France scored on throwing error by shortstop Báez, Rodríguez out at second.6–0
- 2Kelenic grounded into fielder's choice to first, France scored on throwing error by shortstop Báez, Rodríguez out at second.6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 2Rodríguez singled to left, Caballero scored and Crawford scored, France to third.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2France walked, Pollock scored, Crawford to second, Caballero to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 43–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Crawford reached on infield single to second, Murphy scored, Caballero to second, Pollock to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Kelenic singled to right, Crawford scored, France to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Fair odds
- DET -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +5 | SEA: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +19 Elo | DET 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 8–712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.