Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting3-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario tripled to center, Brennan scored.0–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Fair odds
- CLE -110
- DET +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +16 Elo | CLE 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–11 | Road vs home | 6–1025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.