Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting2-4
- Peyton BattenfieldPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Baddoo doubled to right, Torkelson scored, Ibañez to third. Ibañez scored, Baddoo to third on throwing error by right fielder Arias.5–0
- 3Baddoo doubled to right, Ibañez scored on throwing error by right fielder Arias and Torkelson scored, Baddoo to third.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Torkelson singled to left, Báez scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Ibañez doubled to center, Báez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Greene grounded out to second, McKinstry scored, Báez to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -110
- DET +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +8 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Peyton Battenfield: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +9 Elo | CLE 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 7–1025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 3–2 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.