Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-4
- Alex FaedoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez scored on Shreve wild pitch, Hernández to second on wild pitch by Shreve.5–0
- 9Suárez scored on Shreve wild pitch, Hernández to second on wild pitch by Shreve.5–0
- 9Hernández singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Suárez to third.4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Hernández homered to left (403 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Kelenic homered to right (347 feet), Crawford scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 45%
- Fair odds
- DET -105
- SEA +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −27 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 1.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +35 Elo | SEA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 8–816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.