Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Palacios singled to right, Marcano scored, Bae to second.3–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–13
- 8Bae reached on infield single to shortstop, Hayes scored, Marcano to third.3–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–12
- 7Rojas doubled to right, Fletcher scored and Moreno scored.3–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 5Reynolds homered to left center (407 feet), Bae scored and McCutchen scored.1–11
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–11
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 31–8
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 21–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 4Hayes singled to center, Reynolds scored and Suwinski scored.1–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Suwinski doubled to right, Hedges scored and McCutchen scored, Reynolds to third.1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Reynolds walked, Palacios scored, McCutchen to second, Hedges to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 41–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Palacios singled to left, Marcano scored and Bae scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 46%
- Fair odds
- PIT -106
- ARI +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +25 | −12 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 1.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +24 Elo | ARI 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 10–915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.