Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Rodolfo CastroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-3
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hedges singled to center, Joe scored, Castro to second.8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 7Castro singled to right, Santana scored, Joe to third.7–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 7Joe singled to center, McCutchen scored, Santana to third.6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Santana doubled to center, Reynolds scored, McCutchen to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5McCutchen singled to left, Reynolds scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Castro homered to left center (375 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Hedges doubled to right, Bae scored and Castro scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Fair odds
- DET -111
- PIT +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +25 | PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 1.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +31 Elo | DET 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 10–914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.