Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Smith homered to right center (405 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Carroll reached on infield single to shortstop, Rojas scored, Marte to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Hayes tripled to center, Hedges scored, Reynolds scored and Santana scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Marte homered to center (418 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Fair odds
- PIT -113
- ARI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +18 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +43 Elo | PIT 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.