Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Eddie RosarioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arcia homered to right center (399 feet).6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 8Riley doubled to center, Albies scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 8Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Seager hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to center (429 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5García homered to right center (401 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Taveras singled to center, Grossman scored, Duran thrown out at home.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Duran doubled to right, Heim scored, Grossman to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4García homered to right (376 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Rosario homered to right (376 feet), Riley scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Fair odds
- TEX -112
- ATL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +17 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +34 Elo | TEX 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 6.22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +2.12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–7 | Road vs home | 13–75th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.