Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael TonkinPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jansen singled to left, Chapman scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Lukes to second.5–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 4Springer homered to left (376 feet).5–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Pillar homered to left (393 feet).5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Albies homered to left (340 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Espinal scored and Jansen scored, Bichette to second.2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Belt reached on infield single to third, Merrifield scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Harris II singled to right, Ozuna scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- ATL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +11 | ATL: Collin McHugh (no track record yet) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +37 Elo | TOR 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–5 | Road vs home | 11–32nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.