Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Murphy doubled to center, Olson scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 8Hernández singled to left, Turner scored, Duran to second.3–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 6Turner homered to right center (389 feet).2–8
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 5Arcia hit a ground rule double, Ozuna scored, Harris II to third.1–8
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 21–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 4Murphy singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Arcia scored, Olson to second.1–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Turner hit sacrifice fly to right, Verdugo scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Murphy singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to second.0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Ozuna grounded out to third, Murphy scored, Albies to second.0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.9 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +3 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +18 Elo | ATL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 9–816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.