Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan LeePitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Casas homered to right center (442 feet), Duran scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Tapia doubled to right, Duran scored, Casas to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Rosario singled to right, Riley scored, Rosario out stretching at second.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to left (470 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Duran singled to center, Turner scored, Hernández to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Hernández singled to left, Verdugo scored, Turner to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- BOS +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.7 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −15 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Dylan Lee (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +24 Elo | ATL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 5.55th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 19th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 10–810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.