Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jansen doubled to left, Merrifield scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Springer scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Bichette singled to left, Kiermaier scored, Springer to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Bichette singled to right, Kiermaier scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Merrifield grounded out to second, Guerrero Jr. scored, Chapman to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Ozuna homered to left (395 feet), Rosario scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Fair odds
- TOR -106
- ATL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +7 Elo | ATL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–4 | Road vs home | 10–32nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.