Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-4
- Spencer StriderPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Varsho homered to center (420 feet).0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 7Lukes scored, Springer to second on passed ball by Murphy, Kiermaier to third on passed ball by Murphy.0–2
- 7Lukes scored, Springer to second on passed ball by Murphy, Kiermaier to third on passed ball by Murphy.0–2
- 5Springer singled to left, Merrifield scored, Springer to second, Kiermaier thrown out at home.0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- ATL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +4 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +3 Elo | TOR 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–3 | Road vs home | 9–32nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.