Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Kevin PillarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-5
- Cody BradfordPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ozuna homered to left center (439 feet), Murphy scored.12–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking12–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 312–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 212–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 7Riley homered to right center (397 feet), Olson scored.10–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 38–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 6Arcia homered to left center (422 feet), Harris II scored.8–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5Albies doubled to left, Olson scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 5Olson doubled to center, Arcia scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 2Acuña Jr. homered to center (454 feet), Arcia scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pillar homered to left center (411 feet), Murphy scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Fair odds
- TEX -110
- ATL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 5.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −10 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +12 Elo | TEX 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 6.31st of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +2.42nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–6 | Road vs home | 12–64th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.