Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran homered to left center (443 feet).4–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 8Murphy homered to right (360 feet), Olson scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Acuña Jr. homered to center (455 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 7Grossman singled to left, Semien scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Semien singled to left, Taveras scored on error, Semien safe at second on fielding error by catcher Murphy.1–5
- 7Semien singled to left, Taveras scored on error, Semien safe at second on fielding error by catcher Murphy.1–5
- 7Semien singled to left, Taveras scored on error, Semien safe at second on fielding error by catcher Murphy.1–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Heim singled to right, García scored, Jung to second.1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4García homered to right (365 feet), Lowe scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Lowe doubled to center, Grossman scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Arcia singled to center, Albies scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -110
- ATL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −4 | ATL: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +19 Elo | TEX 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 6.22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +2.12nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–6 | Road vs home | 12–76th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.