Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Karl KauffmannPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Grichuk singled to left, Díaz scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 6Díaz doubled to right, Blackmon scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 5Grossman reached on infield single to pitcher, Jung scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Jung doubled to left, García scored and Seager scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Seager doubled to left, Semien scored and Taveras scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4García homered to right center (385 feet), Lowe scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 5.0 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −12 | COL: Karl Kauffmann (no track record yet) · TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +43 Elo | TEX 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 6.21st of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +2.02nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–13 | Road vs home | 13–86th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.