Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Luke MaileBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fairchild doubled to right, Senzel scored, Steer to third.6–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–11
- 6McMahon grounded out to shortstop, Bryant scored, Díaz to second.5–11
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–10
- 6Díaz singled to center, Blackmon scored, Bryant to third.5–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 6Bryant singled to center, Doyle scored and Trejo scored, Blackmon to third.5–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 6Doyle tripled to left, Castro scored and Toglia scored.5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Díaz singled to center, Blackmon scored and Profar scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Profar doubled to left, Doyle scored and Trejo scored, Blackmon to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 5Blackmon walked, Toglia scored, Trejo to second, Doyle to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 45–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Fairchild hit a ground rule double, India scored and Steer scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 13–0
- 5Maile homered to left center (424 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Maile doubled to left, Fraley scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Fair odds
- COL -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +21 Elo | COL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 9–1223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.