Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Nick SenzelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8McLain singled to center, Newman scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Senzel homered to center (429 feet), Stephenson scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Tovar homered to right center (415 feet).0–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Fair odds
- COL -111
- CIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.0 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −3 | CIN: Brandon Williamson (no track record yet) · COL: Chase Anderson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | COL +25 Elo | COL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 9–1122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.