Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Senzel singled to center, McLain scored, Steer to second.8–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 37–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–9
- 8Doyle homered to center (441 feet).7–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 8Myers hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramos scored.7–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 36–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 7Castro doubled to right, Grichuk scored and McMahon scored.6–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 5Stephenson scored on Suter wild pitch, Ramos to second, Senzel to third.6–6
- 5Stephenson scored on Suter wild pitch, Ramos to second on wild pitch by Suter, Senzel to third on wild pitch by Suter.6–6
- 5Stephenson doubled to center, Steer scored.5–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 4Doyle homered to right (398 feet), Wynns scored.4–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 4India singled to right, Ramos scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Fairchild hit sacrifice fly to right, Senzel scored, Ramos to third.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Fraley singled to left, McLain scored, Fraley to second.2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Blackmon tripled to right, Castro scored and Doyle scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 11–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +5 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +8 Elo | COL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 8–1124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.