Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Harold CastroBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching2.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Doyle reached on infield single to third, Blackmon scored, Profar to third.5–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–11
- 8Castro doubled to left, Díaz scored, Moustakas to third.4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–11
- 8Moustakas singled to right, Toglia scored, Díaz to second.3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 8Grichuk hit sacrifice fly to left, Profar scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 6Seager homered to center (423 feet), Semien scored.1–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 5Duran homered to left center (400 feet).1–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Castro singled to left, McMahon scored, Moustakas to third.1–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 2Grossman singled to center, Lowe scored and García scored.0–8
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 2García grounded into fielder's choice to third, Seager scored, Lowe safe at second on fielding error by third baseman McMahon.0–6
- 2García grounded into fielder's choice to third, Seager scored, Lowe safe at second on fielding error by third baseman McMahon.0–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Lowe singled to right, Semien scored, Seager to third.0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Duran singled to center, Jung scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Fair odds
- TEX -122
- COL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +12 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +60 Elo | TEX 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 6.21st of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +2.12nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–14 | Road vs home | 14–84th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.