Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thompson hit sacrifice fly to center, Seager scored.3–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–13
- 8J. Smith homered to right center (394 feet).3–12
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–12
- 8Moustakas scored on Leclerc wild pitch, Doyle to third on wild pitch by Leclerc.3–11
- 8Moustakas scored on Leclerc wild pitch, Doyle to third on wild pitch by Leclerc.3–11
- 8Doyle doubled to left, Grichuk scored, Moustakas to third.2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–11
- 6Moustakas grounded into fielder's choice to first, McMahon scored on error, Grichuk safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Lowe.1–11
- 6Moustakas grounded into fielder's choice to first, McMahon scored on error, Grichuk safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Lowe.1–11
- 6Moustakas grounded into fielder's choice to first, McMahon scored on error, Grichuk safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Lowe.1–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–11
- 5Seager doubled to left, Semien scored.0–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–10
- 5Semien singled to center, Taveras scored.0–10
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–10
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 5Taveras doubled to left, García scored, Heim scored and Jung scored.0–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Heim singled to center, Lowe scored, Jung to second, García to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Fair odds
- TEX -123
- COL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +61 Elo | TEX 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 6.31st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 15–83rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–2 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.