Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Aledmys DiazBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hernández homered to center (417 feet).1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 7Díaz doubled to left, Bleday scored, Peterson to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Raleigh walked, Crawford scored, Suárez to second, Rodríguez to third.0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 40–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Rodríguez singled to right, Haggerty scored, Crawford to second.0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Crawford singled to center, Pollock scored, Haggerty to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Haggerty doubled to left, Raleigh scored and Caballero scored, Pollock to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Fair odds
- SEA -131
- OAK +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +87 Elo | SEA 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.2 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–20 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–5 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.