Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to right (392 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Noda hit sacrifice fly to center, Ruiz scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Rooker singled to center, Noda scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Tucker singled to center, Bregman scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to center, Altuve scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Fair odds
- HOU -133
- OAK +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.3 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +10 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +95 Elo | HOU 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.4 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.6 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 305–16 | Road vs home | 12–1119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.