Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Burger homered to left (349 feet), Robert Jr. scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Robert Jr. homered to left (409 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Diaz homered to left (424 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Tucker hit sacrifice fly to right, Alvarez scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Alvarez doubled to right, Bregman scored on error and Dubón scored on error, Alvarez safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Anderson.2–0
- 1Alvarez doubled to right, Bregman scored on error and Dubón scored on error, Alvarez safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Anderson.2–0
- 1Alvarez doubled to right, Bregman scored on error and Dubón scored on error, Alvarez safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Anderson.2–0
- 1Alvarez doubled to right, Bregman scored on error and Dubón scored on error, Alvarez safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Anderson.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Fair odds
- CHW -103
- HOU +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +14 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 7–1125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.