Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin reached on bunt single to catcher, Pratto scored, Duffy to second.3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Robert Jr. doubled to left, Marisnick scored and Vaughn scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Garcia doubled to left, Pratto scored and Melendez scored, Garcia to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Vaughn singled to left, Benintendi scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Massey homered to right (389 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Fair odds
- KC -108
- CHW +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.9 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −13 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +5 Elo | KC 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 29th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–15 | Road vs home | 5–1729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.