Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alberto singled to right, Robert Jr. scored, Grandal to third.5–12
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–12
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–12
- 6Pratto doubled to left, Olivares scored, Perez scored and Melendez scored.4–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 6Melendez singled to center, Bradley Jr. scored and Massey scored, Perez to second.4–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 6Bradley Jr. doubled to right, Pratto scored and Garcia scored, Massey to third.4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Massey singled to left, Olivares scored, Garcia to second, Pratto to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Sheets homered to center (423 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 10 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball 33–4
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pasquantino doubled to right, Bradley Jr. scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Fair odds
- KC -108
- CHW +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.0 – 5.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +12 Elo | KC 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.828th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −1.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 3–1630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.