Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Hanser AlbertoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Royals- Nick PrattoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brad KellerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Olivares homered to left center (418 feet).1–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 6Melendez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Pasquantino scored, Perez out at third.1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5Pratto homered to right (374 feet), Melendez scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Massey homered to center (417 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Alberto singled to left, Sheets scored, Grandal to second.1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Massey singled to center, Pratto scored, Duffy to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Duffy reached on infield single to second, Olivares scored, Pratto to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pratto singled to right, Melendez scored, Olivares to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Perez doubled to left, Pasquantino scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.9 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −4 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Brad Keller: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +23 Elo | KC 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.728th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 4–1729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–1 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.