Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching9.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Zavala singled to left, Alberto scored, Zavala to second.4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pasquantino reached on infield single to third, Witt Jr. scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Vaughn homered to left (422 feet), Sosa scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Robert Jr. homered to left (430 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (420 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Fair odds
- KC -107
- CHW +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.2 – 5.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −13 | CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +8 Elo | CHW 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 5.828th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −1.627th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 4–1629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.