Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-4
- Brandon BielakPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Zavala singled to right, Robert Jr. scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Robert Jr. singled to right, Moncada scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 7Dubón reached on infield single to pitcher, Julks scored, Meyers to second.1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Robert Jr. homered to left (427 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 46%
- Fair odds
- CHW -101
- HOU +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −11 | HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +27 Elo | HOU 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 6–1126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.