Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez homered to right (428 feet).5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Dubón doubled to left, Maldonado scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Maldonado doubled to left, Julks scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Tucker doubled to left, Maldonado scored, Bregman to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Peña hit sacrifice fly to right, Tucker scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Robert Jr. homered to left center (428 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +2 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +4 Elo | CHW 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 6–1025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–2 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.