Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- David HensleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thaiss hit sacrifice fly to center, Drury scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Drury tripled to center, Rendon scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Ohtani doubled to right, Ward scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Hensley homered to left center (412 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Rendon singled to center, Ward scored, Ohtani to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Ohtani doubled to center, Neto scored, Ward to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3J. Abreu doubled to right, Alvarez scored on error, J. Abreu safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Renfroe.3–1
- 3J. Abreu doubled to right, Alvarez scored on error, J. Abreu safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Renfroe.3–1
- 3J. Abreu doubled to right, Alvarez scored on error, J. Abreu safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Renfroe.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Alvarez doubled to right, Bregman scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Bregman tripled to right, Dubón scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Renfroe homered to center (412 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -111
- HOU +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.0 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +8 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +11 Elo | LAA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.38th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.920th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 4th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 9–712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.