Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Martin MaldonadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Alvarez singled to left, Hensley scored, Bregman to second.3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Maldonado homered to left (393 feet), Meyers scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Neto homered to right center (387 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Fair odds
- LAA -115
- HOU +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.9 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +15 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +37 Elo | LAA 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.920th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 10–79th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.