Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to right center (408 feet), Trout scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Peña singled to right, Hensley scored and Meyers scored, Maldonado to third.5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Meyers reached on infield single to third, Julks scored, Hensley to second.3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Diaz hit sacrifice fly to left, Tucker scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Renfroe homered to left (392 feet), Rendon scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Alvarez homered to center (417 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -112
- HOU +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 4.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +15 Elo | LAA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 5th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 10–811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.