Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suzuki homered to left (372 feet), Morel scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 7Alvarez singled to right, Dubón scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7Bregman hit sacrifice fly to left, Maldonado scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4McCormick doubled to right, Julks scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Julks doubled to center, Tucker scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Tucker doubled to left, Alvarez scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Alvarez doubled to center, Bregman scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Mervis homered to right (393 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Dubón scored on Steele wild pitch.0–1
- 1Dubón scored on Steele wild pitch.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -113
- CHC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +3 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–11 | Road vs home | 9–1121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.