Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4
- Sonny GrayPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Swanson scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Morel homered to right center (429 feet), Gomes scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Gomes singled to right, Mervis scored, Mastrobuoni to second.3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Mervis doubled to center, Wisdom scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to left, Swanson scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Vázquez hit sacrifice fly to center, Castro scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to third, Farmer scored on throwing error by third baseman Wisdom, Castro safe at third on error.0–1
- 2Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to third, Farmer scored on throwing error by third baseman Wisdom, Castro safe at third on error.0–1
- 2Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to third, Farmer scored on throwing error by third baseman Wisdom, Castro safe at third on error.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -113
- CHC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +11 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +19 Elo | MIN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 12–76th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.