San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Jose MirandaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado homered to left (405 feet), Nola scored and Cronenworth scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Cronenworth walks, Tatis Jr. scored on pickoff error by catcher Vázquez.3–1
- 7Tatis Jr. scored on pickoff error by catcher Vázquez.3–1
- 7Nola sacrificed to pitcher, Kim scored, Grisham to second.2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–1
- 4Miranda doubled to left, Buxton scored, Kirilloff to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Carpenter singled to right, Soto scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Fair odds
- MIN -110
- SD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −12 | SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +5 Elo | MIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 10–67th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.