Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4
- Clayton KershawPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Grisham scored, Soto out at second, Machado to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Heyward doubled to right, Smith scored on fielding error by right fielder Tatis Jr., Heyward to third.2–4
- 7Heyward doubled to right, Smith scored on error, Heyward safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Tatis Jr..2–4
- 7Heyward doubled to right, Smith scored on fielding error by right fielder Tatis Jr., Heyward to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Kim reached on infield single to shortstop, Machado scored, Cronenworth to second, Soto to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to left (375 feet), Grisham scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to center (405 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Muncy grounded out to first, Betts scored, Freeman to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 48%
- Fair odds
- SD -106
- LAD +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | +3 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +17 Elo | LAD 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 7–921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.