Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Outman homered to right (343 feet), Busch scored.5–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 10Busch singled to left, Freeman scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 9Betts homered to left center (395 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Smith doubled to left, Freeman scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Bogaerts doubled to right, Machado scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Machado doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 48%
- Fair odds
- SD -106
- LAD +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −16 | LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +15 Elo | LAD 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 8–1022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–1 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.