Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting3-4, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. doubled to left, Sullivan scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Taylor homered to left (403 feet), Smith scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Fair odds
- SD -108
- LAD +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −8 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +6 Elo | LAD 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 0–1 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.