St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Yan GomesBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman singled to center, DeJong scored.4–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Morel singled to center, Mancini scored, Gomes to second.3–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 6Swanson doubled to left, Madrigal scored and Morel scored.3–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Morel doubled to right, Mancini scored, Gomes to third.3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Nootbaar singled to center, Yepez scored, DeJong to second.3–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Wisdom grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Happ scored, Suzuki out at second.2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 4Gomes homered to left center (396 feet), Mancini scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Wisdom homered to center (393 feet), Suzuki scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Suzuki doubled to right, Swanson scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Contreras singled to right, Knizner scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Arenado tripled to right, Goldschmidt scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Fair odds
- CHC -117
- STL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +17 | STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +46 Elo | CHC 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 10–1119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–0 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.