St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras grounded into fielder's choice to third, Nootbaar scored, Gorman out at second.3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Contreras doubled to center, Nootbaar scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Automatic Strike 11–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Swanson doubled to left, Wisdom scored, Hoerner to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Carlson singled to left, Contreras scored, Donovan to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Fair odds
- CHC -120
- STL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +13 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +57 Elo | CHC 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–11 | Road vs home | 10–918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.