St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul DeJongBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Knizner doubled to second, Carlson scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9DeJong homered to left center (413 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Morel homered to center (422 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 3Swanson homered to right (359 feet), Madrigal scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3DeJong walked, Arenado scored, Donovan to second, Contreras to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 44–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Donovan walked, Goldschmidt scored, Contreras to second, Arenado to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 43–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Nootbaar homered to right center (431 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Swanson doubled to right, Madrigal scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Gorman homered to left center (384 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Fair odds
- CHC -117
- STL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −14 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–11 | Road vs home | 10–1018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.