San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Twins- Kyle FarmerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Correa doubled to left, Jeffers scored and Taylor scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Kepler grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Gallo scored, Buxton out at second, Jeffers to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Odor homered to right (382 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Farmer homered to left center (433 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Soto doubled to left, Machado scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Gallo walked, Kirilloff scored, Farmer to second, Polanco to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 41–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to left (369 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- SD +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +23 Elo | MIN 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 11–78th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.