San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Twins- Max KeplerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Kirilloff singled to right, Kepler scored, Correa to second.3–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 10Solano singled to right, Castro scored.3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Nola sacrificed to third, Odor scored.3–2
- 8Machado hit sacrifice fly to right, Grisham scored, Tatis Jr. to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Soto homered to center (417 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Correa doubled to center, Kepler scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Kepler homered to right (415 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −3 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +4 Elo | MIN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 10–79th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.